Tuesday gave us another .500 NRFI day for a slight loss.
The positive is we're trending in the right direction after a down week. The negative is we'll need to hit more than half the bets to come out ahead.
We have four more picks on Wednesday's slate, all during the afternoon window of games.
MLB NRFI Picks: Today's Model PredictionsWednesday, May 12:10 p.m. ETMLB.TVYRFI -108 (Play to -115)Starting Pitchers: Bailey Ober vs. Chris Flexen
This game is similar to the Nationals-Rangers YRFI we hit yesterday in that one team — in this case, Minnesota — is considerably more likely to do most of the scoring.
Like that game, where Washington was the team to cash the ticket, the less likely team is projecting for just enough equity. So, I prefer the full-inning YRFI to variations of bets on Minnesota specifically.
That said, other permutations targeting just Minnesota — with their five-run team total — also make sense if you're seeking some juicier bets.
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Wednesday, May 13:07 p.m. ETMLB.TVNRFI -115 (Play to -130)Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo vs. Chris Bassitt
The eight-run total in this game is starting to get juiced to the under, and we have one starting pitcher in Lugo who's been excellent in 2024.
Bassitt's overall numbers aren't as strong (5.64 ERA), but he's been strong his first time through the order (1.42 ERA).
The struggles at the top of the Toronto lineup also help a lot here, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Bo Bichette's numbers ranging from "average" to "miserable" this year.
What is NRFI/YRFI Betting in MLB? | Introducing 2024 Model for Popular Baseball PropRead nowWednesday, May 14:07 p.m. ETMLB.TVNRFI -113 (Play to -120)Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Patrick Sandoval
NRFIs against the Angels had been a bit scary this year, but that was almost entirely due to the presence of Mike Trout at the top of their lineup.
But with Trout out of action for the foreseeable future, their first-inning hitters are considerably less threatening.
I'm projecting some risk on the Phillies' side, but not enough to avoid this NRFI at the current price.
Angels' starter Patrick Sandoval has a rough stat line to start the year, but his underlying metrics paint the picture of a positive regression candidate. Plus, his first-time-through-the-order expected FIP is a solid 3.81, so he's at least started games well this season.
Wednesday, May 14:10 p.m. ETMLB.TVNRFI -108 (Play to -130)Starting Pitchers: Graham Ashcraft vs. Joe Musgrove
Given how hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark is, we always need to build in a downgrade to Reds hitters when playing on the road. Particularly in San Diego, one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in baseball.
Padres starter Joe Musgrove has been bad this season, but he's coming off four consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons. I expect him to return to form eventually.
On the other hand, Ashcraft has been solid overall and excellent early in games. His first-time-through-the-order expected FIP is just 2.73, and the Padres lineup is better in the middle than at the top.
