We took a week off from betting the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, but we are back at it this week for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. The new tournament name is a mouthful and has some strange capitalization. What is it with the PGA TOUR and wanting to yell at its fans?
I’m also frustrated with their inability to read a weather forecast (after a Monday finish at the RBC Heritage) and their inability to provide reliable Shot Tracker each week.
I watch a lot of golf on YouTube, and after recently finishing a video, the algorithm suggested the final-round of the 1992 Masters. I was hooked immediately as Fred Couples and Raymond Floyd battled for the green jacket. I couldn’t believe my eyes when they showed a split screen with live golf as well as Shot Tracker for the 13th hole.
This technology has been available for more than 30 years, yet the Tour can’t figure out how to give us play-by-play data at a team event? As a fan and a bettor, it’s extremely frustrating.
That’s enough of my rant. Let’s turn our attention to this week.
TPC Craig Ranch will host this event for the fourth straight year. This course is a par-71 that measures over 7,400 yards. It features three par-5s and a drivable par-4.
Given the length of the course, water being in play on 13 holes and fairways that are tree-lined, you would think this would be a tough test for professionals. Well, think again. This has played as one of the six easiest courses on Tour in each of the last three years.
The fairways here are a tad wider than the average course on Tour at 37 yards wide, and the greens are fairly big at an average of 6,800 square feet. In 2023, the field hit 61% of fairways and 69% of greens in regulation.
Given the course's length, there aren’t a ton of wedge shots at this venue as 70% of approach shots last year came from at least 150 yards. Consequently, golfers who excel with their mid and long irons will have a significant advantage this week.
Ultimately, this week comes down to who can make the most birdies.
Starting bankroll: $1,000Last week: -$57Current bankroll: $6152024 Byron Nelson PredictionsByron Nelson Outright PicksSi Woo Kim to Win +2200 (DraftKings)
Bet $25 to Pay $575
Si Woo Kim hasn’t had a ton of success on the green this season, but he has been incredible with his tee-to-green play. He has gained at least 5.7 strokes from tee to green in six of his last eight starts on Tour. He’s a strong total driver of the ball, he’s an excellent iron player, and he’s elite around the green.
If he can figure it out with the flatstick, I like his chances of claiming his fifth PGA TOUR title. It took him a couple of years to get used to TPC Craig Ranch, but he cracked the code in 2023 when he finished in a tie for second.
Adam Scott to Win +2500 (FanDuel)
Bet $25 to Pay $650
Adam Scott is very unique because he’s a consistent golfer with his finishes but very inconsistent with his Strokes Gained categories. One week he’ll gain a bunch ball-striking, one week his putter catches fire, and another week he’ll get up and down from everywhere. His game log is one of the strangest that I have ever seen.
With that said, he’s been a top-20 machine over the last six months. We know Australians tend to play well in Texas due to the wind, and Scott has tied for 32nd and eighth here the last two years.
Byron Nelson Placement BetsK.H. Lee Top 10 +500 (FanDuel)
Bet $25 to Pay $150
I was tempted to bet K.H. Lee outright this week, but is he really going to win this event three times in four years? It’s hard to envision that happening, so I will settle for a top-10 finish from him instead.
He’s been very volatile this year, posting two top 10s and five missed cuts in his last nine starts. When it comes to top-10 bets and outrights, focusing on a golfer's ceiling rather than floor is key. Lee can get red hot and clearly loves TPC Craig Ranch. I should also note that he seems to play all of the TPC courses well.
3 CJ Cup Byron Nelson LongshotsRead nowMark Hubbard Top 40 +115 (FanDuel)
Bet $25 to Pay $54
My final bet of the week is one that I feel confident about. Mark Hubbard and his teammate Ryan Brehm nearly won the Zurich Classic last week but couldn’t get up and down from behind the 72nd green to join the playoff.
Hubbard has been playing consistently as he has now rattled off five straight top-40 finishes on Tour and hasn’t missed a cut since last November. He’s also made both cuts at this course with two top-40 finishes. His two biggest strengths are approach play and scrambling, both of which will come in handy this week at TPC Craig Ranch.