Saturday, Feb. 1010 a.m. ETPeacock
Wolves Odds+115Brentford Odds+230Draw+260Over / Under2.5 -134 / +105Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.
Wolves and Brentford meet for the fourth time in less than two months in a pivotal match in the bottom half of the table.
Wolves have been giant killers this Premier League season and pulled off another on this past weekend, beating Chelsea 4-2 at Stamford Bridge. Gary O'Neill deserves a lot of credit for how well he's done setting this team up tactically for success and it's gotten Wolves within striking distance of a top half finish.
Brentford are still going to through a really tough run. They've lost back to back matches against Tottenham and Manchester City, which means that they have lost seven of their last eight Premier League matches, dropping them down into the relegation fight. A win here against Wolves would do wonders for the Bees to get things back on track.
Read on for my Wolves vs Brentford prediction.
WolvesO’Neill has done a fantastic job with Wolves and has set them up in a way where they are really good out of possession and against some of the top teams in the Premier League because of their ability to be deadly in transition. With Neto fully healthy they’ve been clicking on all cylinders, but they haven’t been that great against teams in the bottom half of the table because they are not set up to be a good team that holds a majority of the possession. Against the bottom half of the table this year, Wolves have a -1.5 expected goal differential.
Even with O'Neill's tactics working very effectively, Wolves' underlying numbers really haven't been that great. They have over-performed both offensively and defensively with their defense allowing 1.70 xG per 90 minutes. They also have a pretty big weakness here against Brentford because they are struggling to defend crosses. Wolves are allowing the fifth-most crosses into the penalty area, while Brentford have completed the most in the Premier League.
Even with all of the prolific attackers Wolves have at their disposal, they still are in the bottom half of the Premier League in expected goals, big scoring chances and shots. Really the only category Wolves are elite at is creating chances off of set pieces, but Brentford have that covered, ranking fourth in xG per set piece allowed.
Brentford are a good lesson in why underlying metrics are much more important than the final score. Brentford are in the worst form of anyone in the Premier League, even losing seven of their last eight matches with a -11 goal differential, but their expected goal differential during that time frame was only -3.3.
One of those unlucky results came against Wolves when the expected goals were basically even, as Brentford tilted the field on Wolves and out-touched them in the penalty box 43 to 19.What I found interesting is in the first meeting between these two Brentford set up in their 4-3-3 that they utilize when they are the favorites and have the intention of being the more possession-dominant team. In both FA Cup meetings they switched to a 3-5-2 and actually conceded a majority of the possession to Wolves, especially in the second meeting. In that second meeting they held Wolves to just 1.2 npxG on 24 non-penalty shots.
One thing that is going to be different in this match as opposed to the previous three matches is Brentford is going to have Ivan Toney. Toney makes such a difference for Brentford not just because he's a prolific finisher, but he's a matchup nightmare for any opposing center back. Because Toney possesses elite strength and pace, the positioning of the center back when defending long balls to him is always difficult. If you play even with him, he will makes runs in behind and beat you with his pace. If you decide to play behind him he will use his body and hold up the ball. Toney has already scored twice in his three matches since returning from the eight month ban and in case you forgot, he bagged 20 goals and had 0.73 xG + xA per 90 minute season last year.
Wolves vs BrentfordPrediction
The first meeting was rife with calamitous defending at the back from Brentford, which is completely uncharacteristic of them, but in the end they outshot Wolves and held 60% with the xG being basically even, including a 0.99 xG tap in from Hee Chan Hwang. Then in the first round of the FA Cup, Brentford went up a man and a goal, but conceded late to send it to a replay. The replay at Wolves went into extra time with Cunha scoring a penalty in extra time, but Brentford still won the non-penalty xG battle.
With Toney back in the lineup, it makes Brentford a significantly better team in attack, especially given his ability to win headers against a defense that struggles to defend crosses into their penalty area.
I would have Brentford favored on a neutral field, so this number is far too high for Wolves. I like the value on the Bees +0.5 at -129.
Pick: Brentford +0.5 (-129 via bet365)